This is a question that fascinates everyone.
Many of us, inspired by science fiction movies, dream of becoming immortal. Imagine living without aging, celebrating life endlessly. If given infinite time, we could explore every corner of the planet and finally complete our bucket lists.
In reality, however, there is no magical pill for immortality. What we have is medicine and technological progress, both of which strive to extend human life.
Scientists have long been studying this topic, collecting data and making predictions about the future. While living to 100 years remains an aspirational goal, experts caution that it is not as achievable as it might seem. In fact, the increase in life expectancy has slowed, making this milestone less likely for most people today.
A Surprising Decline in Predictions
Researchers had hoped for a dramatic rise in lifespan, given the advances in medicine over the 20th century. In the 1990s, predictions suggested that children born in 2022 would have a high chance of reaching 100. But more recent studies paint a different picture. According to updated findings, only 5.3% of girls born in 2022 are expected to reach 100 years of age. For boys, the odds are even lower—just 1.8%.
This research took into account mortality rates from various countries around the world. The data shows that average life expectancy has increased significantly over the last century: from 48 years in 1900 to 67 years in 1950, and then to 76 years by the early 2000s. However, by 2021, it had increased only slightly, reaching 77 years.
Why such a modest increase? Considering the advancements in healthcare, scientists had anticipated a life expectancy of 83 years by now.
Life Expectancy Today
For children born today, boys are expected to live an average of 78.9 years, while girls may reach 82.8 years. This slower pace of improvement suggests a clear deceleration in life expectancy growth.
Interestingly, Hong Kong stands out as the one place in the world where residents have the highest chance of reaching the age of 100. This surprising exception demonstrates the importance of various factors—beyond medicine—on longevity.
A Shift Toward Quality, Not Just Quantity
In light of these findings, scientists emphasize the importance of focusing on the quality of life, not just longevity. Extending life only to add a few more years isn’t enough if those years are not lived in good health. “We need to shift our focus toward increasing the number of years people spend in good health,” researchers suggest, rather than chasing after numbers alone.
According to Professor Stuart Olshansky, “Most elderly people today are living on borrowed time created by medical advancements. These medical ‘patches’ extend life by just a few years, even though they arrive at an accelerating pace.” This indicates that the rapid development of medicine alone cannot guarantee significantly longer lifespans.
Learning to Slow Aging
Scientists now aim to concentrate on slowing the aging process and extending the body’s functionality. While medicine continues to add years to life, the key challenge will be to ensure that those years are spent meaningfully.
Unfortunately, only the soul remains forever young. But with advancements in research, perhaps one day we can ensure that the body, too, is able to enjoy a longer, healthier journey through life.